Economy & Markets Prediction Hub
An economy prediction market prices the questions that move Indian portfolios — will the RBI cut rates at the next MPC, where the Nifty closes, how inflation or the rupee tracks — as live, crowd-sourced probabilities. India Predictions aggregates these markets from Polymarket, scores them for India relevance, and gathers the macro questions that matter: RBI repo-rate decisions, Nifty and Sensex levels, CPI prints, crude-oil shocks and currency moves. Each market shows an implied probability (a 45 contract means a 45% chance) and refreshes about every five minutes, often reacting to data releases faster than economist surveys. This is an informational tracker, not a trading or advisory platform — no real-money positions, no INR transactions, and nothing here is financial advice. Use it to see how the market crowd is pricing RBI policy and Indian-market outcomes, then weigh that against your own analysis.
Live Economy markets
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Stock Market Crash – "Fearful Friday"
Sensex sold off sharply on March 13, 2026 (down 1,470 points) with Nifty ending below 23,151 amid West Asia conflict escalation and crude oil near/above $100 per barrel.
Will Nifty recover above 24,000 by end of March 2026?
RBI Monetary Policy – Rates on Hold
RBI maintained repo rate at 5.25% (Feb 2026 MPC) and flagged geopolitical tensions, volatile energy prices and adverse weather as key upside risks. Feb 2026 CPI inflation accelerated to 3.21% y/y (from 2.74% in Jan), with food inflation at 3.47% (vs 2.13%). New RBI projections put FY26 inflation at 2.1% (Q4: 3.2%) and FY27 inflation at 4.0% (Q1) / 4.2% (Q2); FY26 GDP growth is seen at 7.4%, with FY27 Q1/Q2 at 6.9%/7.0%.
Will FY26 inflation print below 3.0% (annual average) as projected by RBI?
US-India Trade Deal Impact
New US-India trade deal expected to lower trade uncertainty. Goldman Sachs estimates 0.2pp GDP growth boost.
Will the US-India trade deal boost Indian exports by 10%+ in FY27?
Gold & Silver Rally
Gold approaching ₹1,63,500-1,65,000 ($5,250-5,300). Silver targeting ₹2,85,000 ($95). Central bank buying (China added gold for 16th month straight).
Will gold cross ₹1,65,000/10g by April 15, 2026 given current momentum?
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Implied probabilities are crowd-sourced estimates aggregated from prediction markets. Informational only — not financial advice. No real-money trading.