What is India Predictions?

India Predictions is a prediction-market data tracker for Indian events. It aggregates and displays live probabilities for cricket, IPL, elections, RBI policy, the economy and more, sourced from Polymarket. It is an informational tracker — there is no real-money trading on the site.

What are prediction markets?

Prediction markets are markets where the price of a contract reflects the crowd-estimated probability of a future event. A price between 0 and 1 maps to a 0%–100% implied probability. India Predictions tracks and displays these probabilities for India-relevant events; it does not let you place trades.

Is India Predictions legal in India?

India Predictions is an informational data tracker, not a trading or gambling platform. It does not accept or facilitate any real-money trades and is not regulated by SEBI. The probabilities shown are for information only and are not investment advice.

Which events does India Predictions track?

India Predictions tracks prediction-market probabilities for India-relevant events including IPL and international cricket, RBI repo rate decisions, Nifty 50 levels, India CPI inflation, elections, Bollywood box office, crypto prices and global events.

Where does the data come from?

India Predictions displays live probabilities sourced from Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market. The figures represent crowd-sourced probability estimates and are updated continuously. India Predictions only tracks and presents this data — no real money is involved.

RBI Rate Decisions: What Prediction Markets Tell Us That Economists Don't

The RBI Prediction Market Signal

Traditional surveys of economists take weeks to compile and are outdated by publication. Prediction markets, by contrast, update in real-time and aggregate information from a far wider set of participants.

February 2026 MPC Decision

The prediction market correctly signaled a hold at 5.25% — with the "rate hold" contract trading at 82% two weeks before the announcement, while several major bank forecasts were split.

Why Markets Beat Surveys

1.Skin in the Game: Traders risk capital on their forecasts, creating stronger accountability

2.Diverse Information: Markets aggregate data from economists, bond traders, corporate treasurers, and data analysts

3.Speed: Prices adjust within seconds of new data releases (CPI prints, GDP data, oil price moves)

Current Market View: April 2026 MPC

The prediction market currently prices a 45% probability of a rate cut in April 2026. Key factors:

•Bullish (for cut): Inflation at 2.1% (well below target), GDP growth at 7.4%, global easing cycle

•Bearish (against cut): Oil prices above $101 threatening imported inflation, rupee weakness, West Asia tensions

Macro Data Points

Indicator	Value	Direction
Repo Rate	5.25%	Unchanged
CPI Inflation	2.1%	Below target
GDP Growth FY26	7.4%	Strong
Oil (Brent)	$101+	Rising
Rupee	All-time low	Weakening

How to Trade RBI Decisions

Prediction market contracts on RBI decisions offer a unique way to express macro views. The key is understanding that prices reflect probabilities, not certainties — and new information constantly reshapes these probabilities.