What is India Predictions?

India Predictions is a prediction-market data tracker for Indian events. It aggregates and displays live probabilities for cricket, IPL, elections, RBI policy, the economy and more, sourced from Polymarket. It is an informational tracker — there is no real-money trading on the site.

What are prediction markets?

Prediction markets are markets where the price of a contract reflects the crowd-estimated probability of a future event. A price between 0 and 1 maps to a 0%–100% implied probability. India Predictions tracks and displays these probabilities for India-relevant events; it does not let you place trades.

Is India Predictions legal in India?

India Predictions is an informational data tracker, not a trading or gambling platform. It does not accept or facilitate any real-money trades and is not regulated by SEBI. The probabilities shown are for information only and are not investment advice.

Which events does India Predictions track?

India Predictions tracks prediction-market probabilities for India-relevant events including IPL and international cricket, RBI repo rate decisions, Nifty 50 levels, India CPI inflation, elections, Bollywood box office, crypto prices and global events.

Where does the data come from?

India Predictions displays live probabilities sourced from Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market. The figures represent crowd-sourced probability estimates and are updated continuously. India Predictions only tracks and presents this data — no real money is involved.

2026 State Elections: Live Prediction Market Tracker for 5 States

2026 State Elections: The Prediction Market View

Five Indian states and one union territory head to the polls in March-May 2026. These elections will reshape Rajya Sabha dynamics and could signal shifts in national politics.

State-by-State Prediction Market Tracker

Kerala

•LDF (Incumbent): 42% probability of winning

•UDF: 38%

•BJP: 18% (historic breakthrough possibility — won Thiruvananthapuram Municipal Corp)

•Key Issue: Development vs anti-incumbency, BJP's growing footprint

Tamil Nadu

•DMK (Incumbent): 55% probability of winning

•AIADMK: 25%

•TVK (Vijay's party): 15% — the wildcard factor

•Key Issue: Dravidian identity, freebies debate, new entrant impact

Assam

•BJP (Incumbent): 58% probability

•Congress: 35%

•Key Issue: NRC/CAA implementation, development vs identity politics

West Bengal

•TMC (Incumbent): 65% probability

•BJP: 28%

•Key Issue: Mamata's dominance, opposition fragmentation

Puducherry

•AINRC + BJP: 48%

•Congress: 42%

•Key Issue: Statehood demand, central neglect

The Rajya Sabha Connection

These state results directly feed into Rajya Sabha composition. Currently:

•BJP is the largest party but short of majority

•NDA needs these wins to strengthen upper house position

•Constitutional amendments require 2/3 majority — still far away for any alliance

Why Prediction Markets Beat Exit Polls

Historical accuracy comparison for Indian elections:

•Exit polls: ±5-8% error on average

•Prediction markets: ±2-4% error in comparable global elections

The key advantage is continuous updating — prediction market prices adjust with every campaign rally, every alliance shift, and every local news development.

How to Follow

Track live probabilities for each state election on India Predictions. Markets update in real-time as new information emerges, giving you the most current view of India's democratic process.